美反伊政治与伊核问题前景

US Anti-Iran Politics and the Prospect of the Iran Nuclear Issue

伊朗核问题和美伊关系进展,尽管更多涉及国际政治,但其重要障碍之一则是美国国内政治。除了内贾德执政的强硬伊朗时期,自霍梅尼逝世后至今的整个美伊关系更多是受美国和以色列国内政治的影响。这在2013年伊朗政治生态转向温和、伊核问题取得重大进展的背景下体现得尤其明显。以鲁哈尼当选伊朗总统、伊核第一阶段协议的签署和落实为标志,伊核问题和美伊关系显现出积极发展的态势。但这一积极进展却引发美国内反伊政治力量的更大反弹,来自美国商务部的新制裁方案和美国国内对更多制裁的激烈讨论,说明基于伊朗人质危机的反伊民意和犹太人团体的反伊游说仍是中短期内美国内反伊政治的主要来源。就现有趋势判断,反伊政治未必能够阻止第一阶段协议的落实和最终签署全面协议,但的确会成为美国取消对伊主要制裁的障碍。如果制裁不能取消,伊核问题的解决和美伊关系缓和将不具备持续下去的条件。在这一背景下,中国一方面需要继续为推动伊核问题的解决以及美伊关系适度缓和作出积极贡献,另一方面也需在发展与伊朗经济合作时持谨慎态度,特别是要充分虑及美国制裁所造成的长期消极影响。

The developments of Iran nuclear disputes and US-Iran relations, though part of international politics, are to a great degree determined by US domestic politics. Actually, Iran-US relations in the post-Khomeini period are seriously affected by the domestic politics of the US and Israel. This has become even more prominent in 2013. The events of moderate Rouhani's being elected as president and the signing of the interim agreement concerning the Iran nuclear issue signified a new and positive trend of the Iran nuclear issue and US-Iran relations. But unfortunately, such a trend caused a new round of anti-Iran movements in US domestic politics. The new sanctions by US Department of Commerce and debates about new sanctions indicate that anti-Iran emotions among American people due to the hostage crisis and Jewish anti-Iran lobbies will still be the main sources of anti-Iran politics, which will have negative effects on US-Iran relations. Judging by the current trends, anti-Iran politics, though unlikely to obstruct the implementation of the interim agreement and the signing of the final agreement, will indeed be an obstacle to US efforts in removing the sanctions on Iran's oil and financial sectors. And if the sanctions in the two fields cannot be removed, the progress in the Iran nuclear issue and US-Iran relations will not be sustainable. Within this context, China should on the one hand continue to make efforts for détente of US-Iran relations and the resolution of the Iran nuclear issue, on the other hand be cautiously moving forward with its economic cooperation with Iran.