气候变化对莱州湾地区水资源脆弱性的影响

Impacts of climate change on water resource vulnerability in Laizhou Bay region

论文首先分析了在现状年 (1993年 )供水能力和需水条件下 ,1960～1993年的气候波动对莱州湾地区水资源供需平衡和脆弱性的影响。然后根据未来气候情景分析了在2000规划年和2020规划年供水能力和需水要求下 ,未来气候变化 (2000～2042年 )对水资源供需平衡及脆弱性的影响。在农业需水保证率50 %时 ,2000～2019年水资源供需基本平衡 ,但2020～2042年水资源短缺2 0～5 7亿m3。若考虑未来气温的上升 ,则水资源短缺进一步加大。因此 ,2020年以后需在调入5 6亿m3客水资源基础上 ,从区外调入更多稳定的水量以保证该地区社会经济的可持续发展。

Laizhou Bay region is located in the north coastal zone of Shandong Province, China In this region, water is scarcy and has already bocome the most important constraint for the regions economic development In this paper, impacts of climate change(1960～2042) on water vulnerability are investigated The results are as followes:(1)According to the capacity of water supply system in 1993, in 1960～1976 wet climate(mean precipitation is 112% of the normal climate), effective water supply is 120% of the normal While in 1977～1993 dry climate(mean precipitation is 88% of the normal climate), effective water supply is 78% of the normal At water demand level in 1993(about half of the irrigation water demand is met), in wet climate, water supply and demand balance is surplus, but it changes to be deficit when in dry climate Water resource vulnerability increases from marginally vulnerable level to vulnerable level (2)Based on future climate senarios in North China, 2000～2019 mean precipitation will be 110% of the normal precipitation According to the capacity of water supply system and at the water demand level in 2000, water supply approximately meets water demand if about half of the irrigation water demand is met Water resource vulnerability is marginally vulnerable 2020～2042 mean precipitation will drop to the normal level.In the light of the planned capacity of water supply system and at the predicted water demand level in 2020, water suppy and demand balance is deficit when onlg half of the irrigation water demand is met Water resource vulnerability will rise to vulnerable level (3)After 2042, precipitation may drop to less than the normal level with temperature 1℃ higher than normal climate, water resource deficit will be more serious even if water demand is still at 2020 level So it is necessary to import more amount of stable water than present planned from outside region in order to guarantee sustainable socioeconomic development