摘要
目前通用的火灾风险评估方法一般难以同时对火灾风险进行定量和动态的分析,单一地基于火灾的确定性规律来进行风险评估存在一定的不准确性。科学地预测人员火灾风险是选取合理的火灾安全设计方案的基础。对人员火灾风险评估方法进行研究,分析了火灾探测时间、预动作时间、疏散运动时间的不确定性及分布规律;通过蒙特卡洛模拟,从理论上解决了求整体安全疏散时间分布的问题。最后,通过整体安全疏散时间分布的统计学意义,建立了求解火灾发生时预期死亡人数的方法。
The current fire risk assessment methods can not be used to analyze quantitatively and dynamically, and the analysis singly based on the deterministic rules is not objective. The forecast of the fire risk of human casualties scientifically is based on selecting a fire safety design scheme. In this article, the method of fire risk assessment of human casualties is researched. The distribution of the fire detection time, the pre - action time and the evacuation time is analyzed in this paper. The overall safety evacuation time distribution is solved by Monte-Carlo simulation. The method can be used to calculate an expected death toll by the overall safety evacuation time distribution.
出处
《武警学院学报》
2014年第4期65-68,共4页
Journal of the Armed Police Academy
