人民币汇率变动、异质性传导与出口贸易结构——基于SITC标准产业数据的实证分析

RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuation,Heterogeneous Transmission and the Export Trade Structure——An Empirical Analysis based on SITC Standard Industrial Data

基于1995年1月至2013年9月的SITC标准的分类数据,运用DCC模型从均值层面与波动层面分析了人民币汇率变动与我国出口贸易的关系。研究表明:整体上人民币汇率与我国出口之间的关系并不显著,但是其对分类产品出口的影响存在显著差异性。汇率变动对我国资源型产品与食料类产品的出口影响较小而对劳动密集型产品和资本与技术密集型产品的出口影响较大,人民币汇率变动幅度与人民币汇率变动的不确定性是分别影响我国劳动密集型产品与资本和技术密集型产品出口的主要原因。

Based on the industrial data divided by SITC from January 1995 to September 2013, this paper analyzes the relationship between RMB exchange rate fluctuation and China's export trade by using DCC model. The result shows that: the relationship between RMB exchange rate and China's export is not significant, but there is significant difference in the impact of RMB exchange rate on the classified products exported. Exchange rate fluctuation has little effect on China's export of resource products and food products, but has great influence on the export of laborintensive products as well as capital and technology-intensive products; the RMB exchange rate variation and the uncertainty of RMB exchange rate fluctuation are respectively the main reasons that affect the export of China's labor-intensive products as well as capital and technology-intensive products.