关于气候变化与人类活动对径流影响研究的评述

Review on the influences of climate change and human activities on runoff

气候变化与人类活动对水文过程的影响是两种不同性质和不同时空尺度的物理过程。任何人类活动对水文过程的影响都是发生在某种气候背景下而不是独立的,因而揭示气候变异和变化对人类活动的制约作用有助于人们对自身行为后果的认识。如何将此两种过程耦合在气候系统中,将是天然水循环与社会水循环相互作用研究的方向。本文在总结归纳已取得的研究成果的基础上,提出改进水文模型中对气候变暖水文效应的描写,研制陆面过程中对天然蒸发与各种人类活动产生的额外蒸散发的定量计算方法,并将它们融入大气和陆地的水量与能量平衡方程中,将是最终建成天然水循环与社会水循环耦合模型的进程中不可或缺的研究问题。建立一个在网络上分散运营的,覆盖自然与社会,常规与非常规信息的数据库群,将为这种耦合模型研究提供基础数据支持。

The influence of climate change and human activities on hydrological processes includes two physical processes with different properties and different space-time scale. The impacts of any human activi- ties on hydrological processes cannot occur independently from the influence of certain climate conditions. It will be helpful to understand the consequences of people＇s own actions if the restriction about climate vari- ability and change to human activities is revealed. Coupling the two processes into the climate system will pave the way for future research of the interaction between natural water cycle and social water cycle. Ex- amining the results from previous studies, this paper suggests （a） to improve the hydrological model in de- scription of the hydrological effect of warming climate; （b） to develop the quantitative calculation method about natural evaporation and the extra evaporation from various human activities in land surface model, and （c） to consider how to integrate them into the water and energy balance equations of the atmosphere and land surface. All of the aforementioned problems must be addressed in the course of building a cou- pling model between natural water cycle and social water cycle. Thus, to provide basic supporting data for this kind of coupled model study, this paper suggests establishing databases covering ＂natural＂, and ＂soci-ety＂, conventional and unconventional information decentralized on the network.