聊城市冰雹气候特征及精细化预报

Climate Characteristics and Intensive Forecast of Hailstone in Liaocheng City

通过对1960 ～ 2000年影响聊城市降雹天气系统的分析,将降雹前500 hPa的天气系统进行分型;用降雹因子和单站要素因子建立历史降雹样本因子库,用相似离度方法制作了聊城市冰雹强对流天气精细化概率预报方法;并根据合成的4种环流型,计算实况资料分析场与历史观测场的相似离度,判定历史相似个例,实现冰雹预报精细化客观预报.

Through analyzing hailstone weather system in Liaocheng City during 1960-2000,500 hPa weather system types before hailstone were classified.Historical hail sample factor database was established by using hail factor and single factor.Hail weather fine probability prediction method was made by similarity method.According to four circulation types,the similar disparity of field and historical observation field were calculated,hailstone forecasting intensive and objective forecasting was realized.