基于灰色GM(1,1)模型的绿洲动态变化研究

Dynamic Changes of Oasis Based on Gray GM(1,1) Model

研究基于1970 ～2009年且末绿洲变化特征、现状及存在的问题,选取影响该绿洲变化的9个社会经济指标,利用因子分析法,分析且末绿洲动态变化的驱动力因素,最后通过灰色GM（1,1）对未来20年的绿洲面积动态变化进行预测.结果表明,影响且末绿洲动态变化的驱动力归纳为人口变化因素、经济发展因素和农业成产条件因素;灰色GM（1,1）模型对绿洲未来动态变化趋势预测得出,规划的近期水平年2010年和远期目标年2030年且末绿洲面积的预测结果分别为1 014.24和2 248.23 hm2,绿洲面积预测模型模型精度达到一级标准.

Based on variation characteristics,status and existing problems of Qarqan Oasis during 1970-2009,selecting 9 socio-economic indicators which affecting oasis change,applying factor analysis,Qarqan Oasiss dynamic driving force were analyzed,finally,grey GM（1,1） was used to predict oasis area dynamic change in future 20 years.The results showed：the change of arable land,the socio-economic development and population growth are three major driving forces that affect the dynamic changes of the oasis ; Finally,by means of gray GM （1,1）,the dynamic changes of the oasis area in the next 20 years were predicted,the results are 1 014.24 and 2 248.23 hm2 in 2010 and 2030 respectively.The oasis area prediction model precision is up to the first grade standard.