1901-2012年福州市气温变化趋势

Tendency of temperature variation in Fuzhou from 1901 to 2012

采用现代气候统计分析方法并结合Mann-Kendall检验和小波分析法,对1901-2012年福州市年平均气温、年极端最高气温、年极端最低气温等序列数据进行分析研究.结果表明:(1)1901-2012年福州市气温变化呈三峰二谷起伏形态,1981-2010年年平均气温比1901-1930年年平均气温高1.2℃;(2)年极端最高气温演变趋势总体上与年平均气温相似,小波分析结果表明,≥35℃年高温日数和年平均气温均存在较稳定的准50 a和准25 a的振荡周期;(3)福州市1901-2012年冬季极端最低温度年际分布呈两头高中间低的态势;(4)采用Mann-Kendall检验法分析,结果表明福州地区年平均气温在1990年发生突变,1990年后福州地区显著升温.

Based on the data of daily extreme high, low and mean temperature in Fuzhou from 1902 to 2012, the change characteris- tics was investigated by using Mann-Kendall test, wavelet annalysis methods. The results were as follows： （ 1 ） The temperature tend- ency of Fuzhou from 1901 to 2012 had three peaks and two valleys, the average temperature from 1980 to 2010 （30 years） was 1.2 ℃ higher than that from 1901 to 1930; （2） The high temperature （over 35 ℃ ） frequency curve changes almost had the same feature, of average temperature, the variety of extreme high temperature and temperature （ over 35 ℃ ） frequency were synchronous, the wavelet analysis showed the changes of high temperature days over 35 ℃ had about 50 year periodicity; （ 3 ） Inter-annual distri- bution of winter extreme low temperature from 1901 to 2012 showed a pattern of higher ends and lower middle; （4） The results of Mann-Kendall test showed that average temperature had abrupt change in 1990, after the point the temperature increased remark- ably.