论国际体系的转型与东亚地缘政治困境

Transition of International System and Geopolitical Dilemma of East Asia

21世纪国际地缘政治环境趋于严峻:单极格局的衰落催生出新的国际格局,国际新秩序正在形成,全球权力重心由大西洋向太平洋转移。世界格局动荡改变了东亚地缘政治环境,东亚的地缘政治环境面临着三大困境,即"大国困境"、"邻国困境"和"同盟国困境"。东亚安全困境的出路在于如何将过去的"适者生存"的竞争模式转向冲突较少、更加睿智、更加合作的"智者生存"的合作模式。兼顾区域各国的不同立场、汇合区域各国的各方利益、尊重各国不同的历史与发展道路、广泛地包容不同的政治和文化理念,开辟东亚新的地区治理结构,也许是"21世纪超越狭隘的‘发展’观念的‘和谐主义’的一种平衡境界"。

The environment of international geopolitics is getting grim in the 21 century: the decline of unilateral pattern is calling for a new international configuration,and the new international order is taking shape. The global pow er is transferring from the Atlantic Ocean to the Pacific Ocean. The instability of w orld configuration is changing the geopolitical environment of East Asia. Three dilemmas are embedded in the East Asia's geopolitical environment. That is,'power dilemma','neighboring country dilemma',and'ally dilemma'. The solution to the security dilemma of East Asia lies in the mode transition,in another w ord,to transform from the competitive mode of 'survival of the fittest'in the past,to more cooperative mode of 'survival of the w isest'featuring less conflicts and more w isdom. A harmonious balanced situation could be possibly achieved,w hich transcends the concept of'narrow development'in the 21 century,by taking the different stands of different countries in this region into consideration,converging the interests of different countries,respecting the different histories and development paths of each country,embracing political and cultural differences,and establishing new regional governance structures in East Asia.