摘要
2008年金融危机爆发后,对商业银行增加逆周期资本缓冲要求、实施宏观审慎监管成为国际监管界的共识。BaselⅢ提出了基于变量"信贷/GDP"的逆周期资本缓冲计提机制。BaselⅢ逆周期资本缓冲计提机制与预期差距很大,集中表现在"信贷/GDP缺口"与GDP增长率的负相关性,且没有考虑发展中国家经济基本面的结构性变化这一最重要的现实情况。基于中国经济基本面的信息,对中国逆周期资本缓冲进行的实证分析表明,中国实施逆周期资本缓冲应该结合经济基本面来进行整体设计,而不应仅仅依据BaselⅢ的指导方法。
The requirements for countercyclical buffer for commercial banks and macro-prudential regulation has been reached consensus among international regulators after the 2008 financial crisis. Basel Ⅲ has present a mechanism for countercyclical buffer based on'credit to GDP'ratio. How ever,based on this paper's analysis,the performance of'credit to GDP'ratio is not as expected,mainly due to the negative correlation between the gap of'credit to GDP'ratio and the grow th rate of GDP and its ignorance of the fundamental factors of economy w hich is one of the most important realistic condition. Based on the empirical analysis of how should China implement countercyclical buffer,this article comes to the conclusion that countercyclical regulation must be based on the analysis of fundamental factors of economy,not only the guidance of Basel Ⅲ.
出处
《吉林大学社会科学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第3期48-57,172,共10页
Jilin University Journal Social Sciences Edition
基金
教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(11JJD790009)
