基于MADM方法的太阳能光热系统区域适应性评价

REGIONAL ADAPTABILITY EVALUATION OF SOLAR THERMAL SYSTEM BASED ON MULTIPLE ATTRIBUTE DECISION MAKING METHOD

依据多属性决策分析方法(MADM)和GIS技术,建立基于能效、经济、社会环保评价因子的太阳能光热区域适应性评价模型,并采用层次分析(AHP)法和专家咨询法确定各评价指标的权重,从而为太阳能光热系统区域适应性评价提供工具。以某住宅建筑太阳能热水系统为例,结合中国省会城市气候、资源及经济等条件,对中国31个省会城市(不包括港澳台)进行太阳能光热系统适应性综合评价,结果表明:受太阳能资源禀赋、经济水平、社会环保效益等诸多因素影响,太阳能光热系统的应用具有地域差异性;适应性评价状况分为4类,包括Ⅰ类区5个、Ⅱ类区12个、Ⅲ类区10个及Ⅳ类区4个。应结合各地特点及所处的区域适应性类型,因地制宜地推行太阳能光热系统技术。

Solar thermal systems are widely used in China, but the actual application is irregularly, lacking in adaptability analysis in different regions. Based on multiple attribute decision making methods （MADM） and GIS technology, the adaptability evaluation model of solar thermal system was established on energy efficiency, economy and social environment. Analytic hierarchy process and expert consultation method were used to determine the weight of evaluation index, effectively providing tools for regional adaptability evaluation. Choosing a solar hot water system in residential building as an example, a comprehensive evaluation of 31 provincial capitals in China was carried out depending on capital city conditions such as climate, resources and economy. The results show that there is an obviously geographical difference in the adaptability of solar hot water system. The adaptability evaluation of conditions are classified into four patterns, there are five districts for 1 class area, twelve districts for 2 class area, ten districts for 3 class area and four districts for 4 class area. Many factors influence the application of solar hot water system, such as solar energy resource endowments, ecnomic levels, social and environmental benefits. Local government should combine with their own specific conditions and adaptability types to promote solar thermal application.