风电场出力的纵向时刻概率分布特性

Longitudinal instant probability distribution of wind farm output power

提出一种新的纵向时间序列分析法,基于实测历史数据,统计365 d或更长天数内每天同一时刻的风电出力,得到96个不同时刻的概率分布结果,并通过函数拟合归纳出由分段函数表达的风电出力概率特征,在此基础上实现对风功率预测值的预评估。算例分析表明,经该方法得到的各时刻概率分布分段函数对不同年份数据有较好的适用效果,对不同置信水平下的预测值预评估效果较好,进一步说明纵向时刻概率分布特性是风电出力的固有属性。

A method of longitudinal time sequence analysis is proposed for studying the fluctuation of wind power output. The wind power outputs of the same instant for 365 or more days are analyzed based on the actual historic data and the probability distributions of wind power output for 96 different instants are thus obtained. The probabilistic characteristics of wind power output are piecewise expressed by function fitting, based on which the wind power output prediction is pre-evaluated. Case analysis shows that,the piecewise functions of probability distribution for different instants are suitable for the wind power output prediction based on the data of different years and has better effect of pre-evaluation based on the predictions of different confidence levels,which further illustrates that the characteristic of longitudinal instant probability distribution is the inherent nronertv of wind Bower output.