经济增长、城市化和社会不平等:对保守现代化的思考

Economic growth,urbanization and social inequality:Reflections on the conservative modernization

随着城市人口逐渐超越农村人口,中国正面临着人口空间分布的突然变化。为了吸取别国的经验教训,探讨其他发展中国家特别是巴西的城市化进程显得尤为必要。从一定程度上说,在协调城市化发展和改善居民生活质量方面,巴西或者世界上一些发展中国家是不成功的。拉美大城市是城市浮肿的样本,很大一部分群体被排斥在公共服务体系之外。这不仅体现在很多地区缺少合适的基础设施,也体现在拉丁美洲大城市特有的高程度的暴力。本文叙述了巴西的经验教训。首先,作者叙述了巴西城市化进程的决定因素,尤其是自1930年到1980年危机的工业化进程;其次,探讨了国内人口迁移的刺激因素,特别是巴西东南部的工业集中化和其他地区的经济衰退;最后,讨论这一轮劳动力吸收的特点和严重社会不平等的根源。

China is now facing a sudden change of redistribution of population in space as her urban population exceeds rural population. It seems necessary to learn others' lessons by analyzing the urbanization of other developing countries,especially Brazil's. To an extent,Brazil and some other developing countries have been unsuccessful in coordination for urbanization and improving living quality. The megacities in Latin America are the examples of swollen cities,and large groups excluded from the system of public services. It reflects in both short of infrastructures in many areas and high-levels of violence unique in the big cities in Latin America. Then the author summarizes Brazil's lessons. Firstly,he describes the determinants in Brazil's urbanization,especially the industrialization between 1930 and 1980.Secondly,the incentives for internal migration are analyzed,especially the industrial centralization in the southeast and the recessions in other areas. Finally,the characteristics of the present round of absorption of labor and the roots for the severe social inequality are discussed.