朝核问题与中美战略共识

Reconstructing China-U.S. Strategic Consensus on DPRK Nuclear Crisis

朝核问题历经20余年外交努力至今仍未获解决,但朝鲜核与导弹能力均得到显著提升。无论朝核问题僵局持续,还是朝鲜继续增强其核与导弹能力,这都不符合中美两国的安全利益。中美两国在朝核问题上的利益与核心关切虽然不同、应对朝核问题的政策偏好也不一样,但求同化异,保持东北亚稳定应是两国追求的共同目标。两国应该在朝核问题恶化之前合作管控朝核危机,通过这种合作就朝核问题的最终解决模式和最终解决方案达成基本共识。中美有必要尝试新的政策思路,这也有助于新型大国关系的构建。新的政策思路至少应该包括:共同改善朝鲜的外部安全环境,支持朝鲜的"软着陆",推动朝鲜政权转型而非政权更迭或者政权崩溃。

After two decades of diplomatic efforts by countries concerned,the DPRK nuclear crisis nonetheless remains unresolved. Meanwhile,DPRK has made good progress in its nuclear and missile programs. If DPRK nuclear program could not be reversed,or the current momentum of the Korean nuclear and missile development continues,China-US relationship will suffer the most.Though China and the United States have different interests and concerns in DPRK nuclear issue,and their policy preferences differ as well,it is still possible for China and the United States to reconstruct their cooperation and coordination to facilitate the final solution to this crisis. To avoid further deterioration of the DPRK nuclear crisis,it is important for both countries to manage this crisis well and reach a strategic consensus over the ways and means of its final solution. Both countries need to try out new approaches,including improving North Korea's external security environment,supporting North Korea's soft landing and promoting DPRK's regime transformation rather than regime change.