稳健的证券分析师的市场反应及其行为动机

Market Reaction to Conservative Analysts and Their Behavior Motives

证券分析师倾向于高估有利消息,低估不利消息,这导致分析师产生乐观倾向,但分析师的预测依然比纯数理模型的预测准确。本文认为,这是因为稳健分析师的存在。稳健分析师发布更为客观的预测报告,在赢得声誉的同时,也约束了其他分析师的乐观倾向,削弱分析师与投资者之间的信息不对称,保证分析师发挥中介作用,进而提高市场效率。本文采用2005-2010年中国资本市场证券分析师盈余预测的数据,借鉴Hugon和Muslu(2010)的分析方法,对不同类型的分析师进行研究。结果显示:稳健分析师做出的盈余预测调整,能引起更强烈的市场反应;稳健分析师的行为动机是获得就职优质券商的机会,从而最大化个人利益。

Analysts tend to over-evaluate good company news than bad news, resulting in upward bias in the forecasts. Howev- er, analyst forecasts beat forecasts generated from time-series model. We attribute this to the existence of conservative analysts, whose forecasts are more neutral and more efficient. The results suggest that conservative analysts＇ forecasts are preferred, and their behavior motives are based on career concern, which will lead to their profit maximization.