外商直接投资与技术转移关系的实证研究

The Empirical Analysis on the Relationship Between Foreign Direct In vestment and Technology Transfer 1

本文运用Granger因果关系检验法和Enle -Granger协整关系检验法对我国1 981年以来工业外商直接投资与技术转移的相互关系进行实证研究 ,结果表明 :我国外商直接投资是技术转移的重要原因 ,但反向因果关系不成立 ;外商直接投资与技术转移不存在协整关系 ,即两者之间不存在长期的共同发展趋势。由此得出推论 :就近期而言 ,我们仍应十分注意利用外商直接投资引进技术 ,以提高我国工业总体技术水平 ,但长期而论 ,我们不应过份注重外资对技术进步的作用。

This paper analyzes the relationship between industrial FDI and technology transfer in China since 1981 with Granger causal relationship test method and Engle-Granger cointegration relationship test method. The author finds that FDI is the most imporant cause of technology transfer, not vice versa. There is no cointegration relationship between FDI and technology transfer; namely, no mutual growth trends in the long run. Thus, though in the short term we should still attach great importance to foreign capital utilization in technology introduction, in the long run we should not relies too much on foreign capital for technology improvement.