中国能源商品贸易与经济增长关系研究——基于1980～2012年数据的分析

An Analysis of Relationship Between Energy Commodity Trade and Economic Increase in China ——Based on the Data in the Period of 1980～2012

能源不仅是国家经济建设的基础,更涉及到国家经济安全。国家间参与世界能源再分配的主要方式是能源商品贸易。根据中国1980~2012年的相关数据,运用协整、误差修正模型、格兰杰因果关系检验的计量经济方法,对中国能源商品贸易与经济增长关系进行的实证分析表明,中国能源进、出口均与经济增长呈同向变动关系,中国经济的发展会扩大能源进、出口的规模,而能源进、出口对中国经济发展的贡献却不明显。

Energy is not only the foundation of national economic construction, but also involves the national e- conomy safety. Energy commodity trade is the main way for countries to participate in the worldwide energy redis- tribution. This paper analyses the relationship between energy commodity trade and economic increase with the e- conometric methods, such as cointegration test, error correct model and Granger-causality test, based on the data in the period of 1980 ~ 2012 in China. The results show that there exists the same direction change between ener- gy import, export and economic increase, the development of Chinese economy can expand the energy inport and export trade scale, but the contribution of energy inport and export is not obvious.