吉林省房地产价格影响因素决策模型——基于因子分析及多元回归法的实证研究

Decision Mode of Factors Influencing Price of Property in Jilin Province ——An Empirical Study Based on Factor Analysis Method and Multiple Regression Analysis Method

采用因子分析及回归等方法,以吉林省2001-2012年商品房平均售价及相关数据为基础,建立吉林省商品房价格影响因素因子分析决策模型。结果表明,由变量人均生产总值、人均每年可支配收入、商品房竣工面积、竣工房屋造价、年末总人口定义的经济发展因子和由固定资产投资价格指数及居民消费价格指数定义的价格因子,提供了原始数据的足够信息。其中人均可支配收入、人均生产总值、商品房竣工面积及房屋造价的波动,均为影响房价走势的重要因素。

In this paper, based on the average price of commercial housing and relative data from 2001 to 2012 in Jilin Province, a study is conducted to create a factor analysis decision mode for the influencing factors of the real estate market in Jilin province by the adoption of factor analysis method and multiple regression analysis method. The result shows that the economic developing factor which is defined by GNP per capita, disposable in- come per capita, completed areas of commercial housing, completing construction cost and total population along with the price factor which is defined by the price index of investment in fixed assets and the consumer price in- dex can provide sufficient information as original data. The disposable income per capita, GNP per capita, com- pleted areas of commercial housing and completing construction cost are important factors for the trend of real- estate price.