沉船碍航性综合评价的云模型研究

Comprehensive Evaluation of Shipwreck's Navigation Obstruction Based on Cloud Model

为定量分析沉船碍航性,处理沉船碍航性评价过程中定性概念的不确定性,结合云模型和Delphi,建立沉船碍航性综合评价云模型。通过对历史事故的统计分析,识别出决定沉船碍航性的要素。利用云模型最大限度地保留了整个沉船碍航性评价过程中的随机性和模糊性,对各个评价因子和评价标准进行云变换得到概念云模型,采用云模型和Delphi对评价因子赋权,依次对各级评价因子云模型进行云跃升运算得到沉船碍航性综合评价云模型。以我国福州水域部分历史沉船为例进行验证,结果表明,应用该模型能有效地评价出沉船碍航性,且得出的评价结论与历史评价结论一致。

To evaluate the navigation obstruction of shipwreck quantitatively and treat the randomness and fuzziness coexistence of the qualitative concept in the process of navigation obstruction assessment of shipwreck,the comprehensive evaluation cloud model was built by combining cloud model and Delphi. Through the statistical analysis of historical acci- dents, the decision elements of navigation obstruction were identified. The randomness and fuzziness in the process of navi- gation obstruction assessment of shipwreck were kept in greatest degree, thanks to the cloud model. Optimal cloud models of each evaluation factor and evaluation criterion were found. The weight of each evaluation factor was determined by cloud model and Delphi. Finally,the comprehensive evaluation cloud model of shipwreck＇ s navigation obstruction was got by cloud jumped operation to each level＇s evaluation factor in turn. The model was used for part of historical shipwrecks in Fuzhou waters of China for verification. Results show that navigation obstruction of shipwreck could be got effectively by using the model and the evaluating results agreed with historical evaluation results.