马来西亚竞争型威权体制的走向：以选民结构为考察视角

The Trend of the Competitive Authoritarian Regime in Malaysia——An Observation from the Perspective of Voter Structure

竞争型威权体制是当今发展中国家的一种普遍政治现象,也是一个极具争议的课题。本文将主要围绕2013年马来西亚第13届大选来采取论据,分析城市化与世代更替所造成的马来西亚选民结构变迁,以及这种变迁是如何影响竞争型威权体制下的政党竞争策略,并进一步探讨这种体制本身的演化路向。本文认为当今马来西亚选民结构中的主要潮流正在推动竞争型威权体制的消解,当然由于威权体制强大的历史惯性的存在,这种消解仍将要经历一个较漫长的过程。

Though a controversial topic, competitive authoritarian regime is very popular in contemporary develo- affects the competitive strategy of political parties in this country and what is the future of the Malaysian competitive authoritarian regime when it meets a changing voter structure. This paper argues that the main trends of voter struc- ture will gradually undermine the long-standing Malaysian competitive authoritarian regime, but this is still a long and tough work because of the heavy historic inertia of authoritarianism.