什么影响了居民的物价预期?——基于微观调查数据的分析

What Affects Households' Price Expectation?——An Empirical Analysis Based on Micro Survey Data

本文利用2009年《中国城镇居民经济状况与心态调查》数据,从个体差异化的人口统计特征、家庭财务状况、对通胀的感知和经历、感受和态度及其对经济变量走势的判断等人口统计、经济和心理特征多个方面,全面研究了居民物价预期的影响因素,特别是首次系统考察了居民对政府的信任程度以及过往通胀经历对其物价预期的影响,试图更深入地解释居民物价预期异质性的微观基础,从而进一步探究通胀预期的形成机制。研究结果发现,居民对政府的信任度、过往通胀经历以及居民个体的其他众多特征显著影响其物价预期,据此提出了如何管理居民的物价预期进而通胀预期的一些政策性建议。

Using the survey data reflecting the economic conditions and mental status of Chinese urban households conducted in 2009, this paper analyzes the impact factors of households ＇price expectation from many aspects such as demographic characteristics, economic conditions and mental status. Specially, this paper initially considers two important factors which are households＇trust in the government and their own experience with the past inflation. The purpose is to deeply explain the micro foundation of the heterogeneity of households＇price expectation, which can help explore the formation mechanism of inflation expectation. The results show that the price expectation is significantly affected by households＇ trust in the government, their experience with past inflation and many other individual characteristics. Finally, several policy suggestions on managing households ＇price expectation are proposed according to the findings.