摘要
本文考察了2000-2013年期间我国PPI、CPI的波动特征和传导机制,研究发现:(1)CPI的上涨主要是由食品类价格变动引致的结构性物价上涨而不是整体性物价上涨;PPI中生活资料和生产资料价格的上涨分别是由食品类价格和原材料价格的上升所拉动。(2)2000年以后PPI和CPI的传导关系在检验初期实现了双向传导;中期没有传导;末期再次实现双向传导。(3)食品类价格波动是CPI、PPI实现两次逆向传导的主因;原材料、燃料和动力购进价格的波动是PPI、CPI在初期实现正向传导的主因,而生活资料中食品类价格波动是PPI、CPI在末期实现正向传导的主因。
This paper investigates the transmission mechanism of China＇s PPI and CPI, and finds that the rise in CPI is mainly structural price rise caused by food price rather than overall price rise. Between 2000 and 2013, the transmission of PPI and CPI has experienced 3 stages, namely bidirectional transmission at the initial stage, no transmission at the interim stage and bidirectional transmission at the last stage. It is found that the two backward transmissions of CPI and PPI are both caused by the fluctuations of food price.
出处
《国际金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第5期24-30,共7页
Studies of International Finance
基金
国家社科基金重大项目"利率市场化改革与利率调控政策研究"(12&ZD086)的阶段性成果
