二十国集团成员国利益关系研究——基于经济和金融角度

An Empirical Study on Economic and Financial Relations among G20 Members

本文详细分析了二十国集团(G20)成员国之间的贸易和证券投资数据。研究表明,中国虽然在国际贸易方面的地位突出,但发达国家之间的经济联系更为紧密。本文根据贸易指标和对外证券投资指标数据构造的经济联系紧密指数显示,19个成员国之间可分为美国集团、欧洲集团、英联邦集团和亚太集团,不同集团内部成员国之间的经济联系不同。外国直接投资和对外直接投资、国际投资头寸数据都进一步验证了发达国家之间的经济联系更强,而数据也表明中国的影响力正在逐渐提升。经验分析表明,中国应根据不同集团的特点,采取不同的措施加强与这些集团之间的经济联系,重点推动亚太集团的发展;同时,加速对外直接投资和证券投资,以及进一步开放国内资本市场等举措,有助于提升中国在G20中的地位。

The author analyzes trade and portfolio investment data between and among G20 members. The resuhs indicate that economic relations between and among the developed countries are much closer even if China plays a central role in global trade. The constructed economic relation index based on the same data suggests that these 19 member countries could be divided into 4 groups, which are America group, European group, Commonwealth group and Asia-pacific group, with different economic relations within each group. FDI, ODI and international investment data all verify the stronger economic relations between and among developed countries. Meanwhile, these data also show the increasing power of China. Empirical studies indicate that China should extend the economic relations with different groups, while giving priority to the Asia-pacific group. Certainly, accelerating ODI and overseas portfolio investment, further opening up domestic capital market will promote China＇s role in G20.