浙江省台风灾害风险评估

Risk Assessment of Typhoon Disaster in Zhejiang Province

台风灾害发生具有不可抗拒性和不确定性,做好台风风险研究是灾害防御的重要工作。利用空间化技术,基于浙江省土地利用类型以及社会经济统计数据,定量模拟500 m×500 m分辨率的浙江省人口和GDP产值分布情况,作为承灾体脆弱性的精细化评估指标,结合影响浙江省的64个台风数据对浙江省台风灾害进行风险规划。结果表明,人口和GDP空间化结果模拟值与统计值线性相关系数达到0.95和0.98,在市县尺度能良好地反映统计数据分布规律,将空间化技术运用到台风灾害风险评估中,可提高风险评估和区划的精度,为防灾减灾政策制定提供参考依据。

Because of the irresistibility and uncertainty of typhoon disaster, research on typhoon risk assessment is an importent work for disaster defense. The types of land use and social economy statistical data in 2011 of Zhe- jiang province, which is based on spatialization technology, are applied to calculate the GDP output value and the size of population per 500 m x 500 m resolution ratio quantitatively, that can be used as the meticulous evaluation index of the vulnerability of hazard-affected bodies. Combined with the data of 64 typhoons to assess and analyze the typhoon degree of risk in Zhejiang Province, and the typhoon disaster risk zoning chart of Zhenjiang Province is planned. The results show that：the spatialization research of population and GDP,based on the type of land use is executable, the linear correlation coefficient between simulated value and statistical value of spatialization are 0. 95 and 0. 98, and the result of spatialization could reflect the regular pattern of statistical data distribution well on the scale of county-city. Combined the results of spatialization and disaster risk theory, it can improve the accuracy of risk assessment, and provide theoretical basis for the disaster prevention and mitigation policies.