人因差错类型与跑道侵入严重等级的相关分析研究

Related Analysis and Research between Human Error Type and Runway Incursion Severity Level

随着民航业的迅速发展,航空量急剧增加,跑道侵入事件也随之增多。民航的目标要消除A、B类严重的跑道侵入事件,如何分配有限的资源达到此目标。首先采用相关分析法对历史数据进行分析,得出不同跑道侵入类型中三大人因差错的关联程度;在相关分析的基础上,利用卡方检验和偏相关性分析分别对不同跑道侵入类型中三大人因差错的独立性及因果关系进行检验。根据以上结果分析得出应加强相关人员的技术培训,严格遵守ICAO的相关规定。

With the rapid development of civil aviation, air volume has increased dramatically, the runway incursion events increased as well. The goal of civil aviation to eliminate class A and B serious runway incursion, which can be caused by many factors. How to assign limited resource to achieve the target is the purpose of this study. At first, correlation analysis is adopted to analyze historical data, which illustrates the relationship and rele- vance degree among three human errors in different types of runway incursion, Then on the basis of correlation analysis, using the chi-square test and partial correlation analysis to test causality and independence of three human er- rors in different types of runway incursion. According to the above results, that is found out the related personnel＇ s technical training should be strengthened and the relevant provisions of the ICAO should be adided strictly.