220kV变电工程结算阶段造价预测指标体系及模型研究

Research on the Cost Forecast Index System and Model of 220 kV Power Transformation Project in the Stage of Completion Settlement

随着国民经济的稳步发展,电力需求持续增长,变电工程投资大,对其进行造价控制意义重大。对220kV变电工程结算阶段造价进行预测研究,首先建立了预测指标体系,并针对各指标费用深入识别了关键影响因素,进一步运用支持向量机方法,实现了对各类费用的预测。结果表明,预测偏差能保持在10%以内,效果良好。

With the steady development of the national e- conomy, the demand for electricity and investment on substation continues to grow. Hence, controlling the project cost is of great importance. This paper aims at predicting the cost of 220 kV Power Transformation Project in the completion settlement stage. First of all, it establishes the prediction index system and identifies the,key factors affecting the each index. Furthermore, It achieves the prediction of each cost by applying the method of SVM（support vector machine）. The results show that the fore- cast deviation can be maintained within 15% and the proposed prediction model can achieve good effect.