近400年来北极地区和中国气温变化的对比研究

A comparative analysis of temperature change in Arctic and China since 400 a BP

对中国和北极地区近 40 0年来的气温变化进行了趋势分析和谱特征分析 ,通过对比认为 ,北极地区及中国基本上都有 1 7世纪、 1 9世纪两个寒冷期和 1 8世纪、 2 0世纪两个温暖期 ,在一定程度上说明了气候变化的全球性 ,但两地区气温的冷暖转化不同步。中国大部分地区 (除华东、新疆、西藏区外 ) 1 7、 1 9世纪升温开始得较北极早 ;北极地区绝大部分站点 1 8世纪升温较中国明显 ,且气温变化的区域差异较大。40 0 a BP以来两地气温变化的周期较为一致 ,以 1 30～ 1 40年、 1 0 0年、 80年的周期为主 ,说明 40 0 a BP以来气温的变化具有全球性 ,而且气温的变化受太阳活动的影响较大 ,自然因素尤其是太阳活动的影响是气候变化的主要原因。

In order to find relations of climate change between Arctic and China and to understand the global change better, we compared air temperature change of Arctic and China since 400aBP. By conducting trend analysis and spectral analysis, we gained some conclusions. Both Arctic and China have two colder periods (17th century and 19th century) and two warmer periods (18th century and 20th century), but the changing tendency is not identical completely. In the 17th and 19th century temperature in most part of China (except East China, Xinjiang, Tibet) increased earlier than that of Arctic. In the 18th century the highest temperature appeared earlier about 10 years in Arctic than in China. In the 19th century temperature of most stations in Arctic increased more violently than that of China. In the 20th century the warmer period of the two places is similar. The periods of temperature change of the two places are identical, being mainly 130~140, 100, and 80 years. Therefore, the natural factor, specially solar activity is the main reason affecting climate change.