国际工程承包风险评估的改进AHP法

An Improved AHP on Assessing the Risk of International Engineering Contracting

扼要分析了国际工程承包风险评估技术的研究现状 ,并详细探讨了改进的AHP法 为提高层次分析法在国际工程承包风险评估应用中的评价精度 ,通过建构风险层次分析模型 ,并从调查表、标度的选择、判断矩阵的建立、一致性检验、定量校正以及计算表的设计等几个关键阶段对其进行分析和研究 ,提出了相应的改进思路及操作方法 由此可为项目风险管理者正确应用层次分析法 ,提高其评价准确性和可信度提供一个有效。

This paper analyses briefly the present situation of the risk assessment studies of international engineering contracting.An improved analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is disscussed. In order to raise assessing exactness of AHP,the model on assessing the risk is established, some important problems in AHP such as method of survey,selection of scale, constructing judgement matrix,checking the consistency,rectifying judgement matrix and design of calculation table,etc.have been studied,and some improving methods for each problem have been proposed.It will provide an effective and practical reference method for risk manager on raising exactness and dependability of assessment in utilizing AHP.