出口退税规模预测模型:基于微观和宏观视角

Prediction Models on the Scale of Export Rebate Based on Micro and Macro Perspectives

我国的出口退税负担机制以中央财政负担为主,在管理上,出口退税实行指标预算管理。国家税务总局每年会根据上一年度的出口及其退税情况进行测算,形成下一年度退税计划分配依据。基于此,本文尝试从微观视角和宏观视角分别建立模型对我国的出口退税规模进行预测,并对模型进行比较分析,以供决策者借鉴。

The burden mechanism of the export tax rebate is mainly based on the central fiscal revenue in China. The target budget management is applied to the export tax rebate. Every year, the State Administration of Taxation （SAT） measures the export and its tax rebate of the previous year as the basis of the planned distribution of the tax rebate of the next year. On this basis, this paper tries to establish two prediction models. One is a practical tax model from the microeconomic perspective, and the other is a VAR model from the macroeconomic perspective. The VAR model predicts the scale of the export tax rebate. Finally, the paper compares the two models to provide reference for the decision makers.