中国城市群集聚特征与经济绩效

Characteristics of clustering and economic performance of urban agglomerations in China

城市群作为中国城镇化的主要载体,社会经济要素将会向城市群大规模的集中,人口和经济集聚对城市群的空间结构和经济发展产生重要影响。通过对1995-2010年间中国20个城市群人口和经济集聚程度进行研究,表明中国城市群集聚程度整体仍是一个增加的过程,且经济集聚度高于人口集聚度,两者呈现很高的线性正相关关系;进一步采用城市基尼指数和首位城市集聚度两种方法分别对城市群集聚程度进行测度和分析,认为20个城市群可以分为强单中心、弱单中心、多(双)中心以及弱中心4种城市群集聚类型;使用局部加权回归的方法对城市群集聚水平和经济增长率之间的关系进行探索性分析,发现城市群经济集聚度与经济增长之间关系整体上符合倒U型假说的特征,而人口集聚与经济增长没有表现出明显的规律性特征。

The llth Five-Year Plan （2006-2010） states that city agglomerations should be regarded as the main form of urbanization, and the 12th Five-Year Plan （2011-2015） puts more emphasis on improving the structure of city agglomerations to promote urbanization in China. It means that city agglomerations have been and will still be the major region into which the population and other economic elements concentrate in China. More importantly, the spatial structure of city agglomerations would have an important influence on the quality and level of urbanization through affecting economic performance. This article aims to examine the clustering of China＇s urban agglomerations and find out the relationship between economic clustering and growth rate of urban agglomerations. Our data are obtained from Gross Domestic Production （GDP） and population statistics of 20 urban agglomerations of China from 1995 to 2010. The conclusions can be obtained as follows. （1） Generally speaking, it is evident that the degree of clustering of urban agglomeration has been ever increasing in the past several years. Although there is a relatively large gap in the degree of concentration between population and economy, the data shows a strong positive linear correlation between them. （2） The 20 city agglomerations can be classified into four groups according to their clustering characteristics. Gini indices and the proportion of GDP of primary city are employed to detect the clustering characteristics of city agglomerations. As a result of investigation, four groups include strong singe-center clustering; multi-centers clustering; weak singe-center clustering and weak centers clustering. （3） As the relationship between clustering of population and growth rate is still unclear, there exists an obvious inverted-U-shaped relationship between economic clustering and growth rate of urban agglomerations. The result further indicates that when Gini indices of GDP in large and medium-sized urban agglomerations are about 0.2 and the primary city＇s proportion of GDP in small urban agglomerations is about 65%, the fastest growth rate can be achieved in China.