美国量宽政策退出的市场不确定性效应

Uncertainty Effect of the Exit of U.S.Quantitative Easing Monetary Policy

由于美国货币政策的国际性及现代金融市场的本质异化,使得美国QE的任何变化都会对全球市场造成巨大的影响与冲击。从2014年起,美国QE退出启动,意味着5年来全球廉价资本盛宴的结束,这必然导致国际市场投资者风险偏好的变化、全球资金流向的逆转和金融市场利益结构的重大调整,以及市场预期的根本性逆转。这将给全球市场,特别是新兴国家市场带来更多的不确定性。再加上美国QE退出的不确定性,更是增加了市场的不确定性。因此,美国QE的退出将是2014年全球最大的市场风险。对此,中国政府要密切关注并选择好应对政策。

Due to the international nature of U. S. monetary policy and the alienation of modern financial markets, making any changes in the U. S. QE will have a huge impact and shock to the global market. Since 2014, the U. S. has started QE exit policy, which means the end of five-year banquet of the global cheap capital, and will inevitably lead to the changes in investors＇ risk preference, reversal of global capital flows, significant adjustments in interest structure of financial markets, and fundamental reversal of the market expectations. This will give the global markets, especially emerging markets more uncertainty. Coupled with the uncertainty of QE exit policy, market uncertainty is rising. Thus, QE exit will be the 2014 world＇s largest market risk. In response, the Chinese government should pay close attention and choose a proper response.