摘要
导流标准的选择关系到整个水电工程的造价和工期[1]。确定导流标准时,要综合考虑工程投资、建设工期、风险率等多个目标,从整体上优化选择导流标准。建立基于JC法的风险率计算模型,这种方法简便、准确,并可适用于非线性极限状态方程的情况。最后以某实际水利水电工程为例,计算不同重现期条件下各方案的风险率,进而建立多目标风险决策模型,最终选定此工程的导流标准,计算结果表明,所建模型是有效的,且精确较高,可以为工程建设提供理论依据。
Diversion standard selection relates to the entire hydropower project cost and schedules.While determining the diversion standard,we should consider the project investment,construction period,the risk of multiple targets,from the overall optimization of diversion standard.This paper establishes the calculation model of risk rates based on JC method,which is simple,accurate,and can be applied to the nonlinear limit state equation.Taking an actual hydropower project as an example,we established the multi-objective risk decision model of diversion standards selected for this project,the calculation results show that,the model is valid with a high precision and it,can provide a theoretical basis for engineering construction.
出处
《中国农村水利水电》
北大核心
2014年第4期137-139,143,共4页
China Rural Water and Hydropower
关键词
导流标准
JC法
风险率
风险决策
diversion standards
JC method
risk rate
risk decision-making
