盈余管理对上市公司未来经营业绩的影响研究——基于应计盈余管理与真实盈余管理比较视角

The Effect of Earnings Management on Future Operating Performance: A Comparative Study between Accrual Earnings Management and Real Earnings Management

本文对比分析了应计盈余管理与真实盈余管理对我国上市公司未来经营业绩的不同影响。研究结果表明,应计与真实盈余管理都会对公司未来经营业绩产生负面影响,且应计盈余管理对公司短期经营业绩的负面影响更大,真实盈余管理对公司长期经营业绩的负面影响更大;公司管理层会使用应计盈余管理或真实盈余管理来满足"盈余阈值";满足"盈余阈值"的真实盈余管理对公司未来经营业绩具有显著负效应,而满足"盈余阈值"的应计盈余管理对公司未来经营业绩具有显著正效应;仅通过应计盈余管理满足"盈余阈值"的公司比仅通过真实盈余管理满足"盈余阈值"的公司具有更优的未来经营业绩。本文研究结论有助于深化利益相关者对盈余管理经济后果的理解。

By using the financial data of Chinese A-shared listed companies in Shenzhen and Shanghai stock markets, with data coverage from 2006 to 2012, this paper investigates the extent to which accrual earnings management and real earnings management differ in their impacts on future operating performance. Our results show that both accrual and real earnings management have negative effects on firm＇s future operating performance. Specifically, accrual earnings management plays a more negative role in firm＇s short-term operating performance, whereas real earnings management has a more negative effect on firm＇s long-term operating performance. We also find that managers engage in accrual earnings management or real earnings management to just meet earnings benchmarks in order to avoid earnings decreases and losses. Moreover, our evidence indicates that engaging in real earnings management to just meet earnings benchmarks has a significantly negative effect on firm＇s subsequent operating performance, while engaging in accrual earnings management to just meet earnings benchmarks has a significantly positive effect on firm＇s subsequent operating performance. Furthermore, firms that only use accrual earnings management to just meet benchmarks have relatively better subsequent operating performance than firms that only use real earn- ings management to just meet benchmarks. A negative association between just meeting earnings benchmarks by using real earnings management and subsequent operating performance suggests that real earnings management damages firm＇s long-term value and future competitive ability, without significant signaling in future firm performance. A positive association between just meeting earnings benchmarks by using accrual earnings management and subsequent operating performance suggests that accrual earnings management provides benefits to the firms that enable better performance in the future or plays a role in signaling managerial competence or future firm performance. Our results suggest that engaging in accrual earnings management to just meet earnings benchmarks is not opportunistic, but making an efficacy on signaling positive future performance. This study extends extant research investigating the consequences of earnings management and provides deep insight into the consequences of earnings management for regulators and stakeholders.