近十年(2004～2013)国际技术预见研究的热点及动向分析

Analysis of the Hot Themes and the Trend of the International Technology Foresight Research During 2004～2013

文章对Web of knowledge最近十年有关技术预见的研究文献,利用Clementine的text mining模块进行文本挖掘,通过频率分析、共现分析、环比分析、主题群分析等数据处理方式,对国际技术预见研究的热点及动向进行挖掘;并结合对高引用率文献的解读,对技术预见的未来研究方向进行了展望。文章的结论是:①预见方法的研究是国际技术预见研究的一个持续热点,并且还在不断升温;②许多文献开始对传统预见方法的局限性进行反思,对新预见方法的研究与探索开始增多;③技术预见研究急需在预见方法方面有突破性的进展,以满足庞大的以企业为主体的预见需求;④可以独立运行的体制化的与平台化的预见方法将成为主要的研究方向。

This paper analyzed the hot themes and the trend of the international technology foresight research, based on the text mining of the papers in Web of Knowledge database during 2004-2013 with Clementine. Through several kinds of data processing, such as frequency analysis, co-occurrence analysis, chain index analysis, and themes group analysis, accompanying with interpretating of highly cited literature, this paper pointed out： ① The study on the method of technology foresight was the hottest theme, which would get more and more important; ②Many articles began to rethink the traditional methods of technology foresight, many highly cited papers discussed the new methods of technology foresight; ③It is necessary to make a breakthrough progress on the study of methods, in order to fulfill the huge need for the enterprises to do foresight; ④Institutionalized approach and Platform approach, which can be run independently, would become the main research directions. Institutionalized approach and Platform approach, which can be run independently, would become the main research directions.