安徽省外向型经济与本土产业结构优化的灰关联分析

A Grey Relational Analysis on Export-oriented Economy and Optimization of Local Industrial Structure in Anhui Province

开放宏观经济学认为,外向型经济的提升与国内本土产业结构的优化和升级等方面有着密不可分的内在联系。文章利用2000-2012年数据对安徽省外向型经济的出口依存度、进口依存度、外贸依存度、外资依存度和生产开放度等五大指标与本土产业结构优化关系进行灰关联分析,结果显示,外向型经济中外贸对本土产业结构的优化调整作用更显著。通过GM(1,1)模型对其后五年进行预测,结果表明,对外贸易尤其是进口将对安徽省本土产业结构优化有明显促进作用。

Open macroeconomies considers that there is a close intrinsic relationship between enhancement of exporl-oriented economy and optimization and upgrading of domestic industrial structure. The paper carries out the grey relatiml analysis on the re lationship hetween five indicators of export-oriented economy （export dependence, import dependence, foreign trade depen dence, fbreign capital dependence and production openness） and optimization of local industrial strut＇ture in Anhui Province by using the data from the year of 2000 to 2012. The results show that there is a more obvious effect of foreign trade on the optimiza- tion of local industrial structure. It also makes a prediction for the next five years through GM （ 1, 1 ） model, the result shows that foreign trade, especially import, will significantly improve the optimization of local industrial strueture in Anhui province.