中国农村碳排放核算及分析:1999～2010

Accounting and Analysis of Carbon Emission in Rural Areas of China

采用能值转换法、排放参数法和农田碳排放综合核算法定量核算了1999~2010年中国农村碳排放量。然后采取对数平均权重Divisia分解法建立因素分解分析模型,将影响农村人均碳排放的因素分解为碳排结构、碳排强度、产能效率和经济增长四大因素,通过模型分析了各因素对农村碳排放量的影响值和影响率。结果显示,在1999~2010年的大部分时间里中国农村碳排放量保持增长,经济增长和能源结构是推动农村碳排放增长的主要因素。最后,根据分析结果提出政策建议。

Energy conversion method, emission parameters method and farmland carbon accounting method are used to account quantitatively the carbon emission in rural areas of China from 1999～2010. Then logarithmic mean weight Divisia decomposition method is used to establish a model of factor decomposition and analysis. The factors that affect rural carbon emission per capita are decomposed into the structure of carbon emission, intensity of car- bon emission, efficiency of production capacity and economic growth. Analysis is made of the impact value and rate of various factors that affect the carbon emission in rural areas. The results show that the carbon emission of Chi- na^s rural areas keeps growth in most time from 1999～2010, and economic growth and energy structure change are major factors in promoting the growth of carbon emission. Finally, policy recommendations are proposed ac- cording to the results of analysis.