中国保险业发展、城市化与经济增长

Insurance Development,Urbanization and Economy Growth in China

本文采用我国1985年—2011年时间序列数据,检验和估计了我国保险业发展、城市化水平与经济增长的关系。结果表明:城市化水平、非寿险业发展与经济增长存在单向因果关系,而寿险业与经济增长之间因果关系不显著;城市化水平、非寿险业与经济增长存在正向关系,而寿险业对长期经济增长产生抑制效应;城市化水平对经济增长的贡献大于非寿险业对经济增长的贡献。为此,本文提出政府应加大对保险业发展的政策支持力度,均衡发展寿险业和非寿险业,重点支持县域和农村保险业的发展,拓宽保险业参与国民经济发展的途径;加快城市化建设的进程以促进保险业的发展;在城市化进程中重视非寿险业的发展。

This paper analyzes the relationship among insurance development, urbanization and economic growth in china by employing time series data form 1985 to 2011. The result shows that urbanization level, the development of non- life insurance and economic growth has a one -way causal relationship, while there is no significant causal relationship between the life insurance and economic growth; The level of urbanization, the non - life insurance and economic growth have positive relationship, while life insurance has inhibition effect on long- term economic growth; Urbanization level＇s contribution to the economic growth is greater than the non -life insurance＇s contribution to the economic growth. Finally, it puts forward that the government should attach great importance to the role that the insurance industry plays in promoting stability in the process of economic growth, strengthen the support to insurance industry from the policy level, balance the development of life insurance and non - life insurance, focus on county and rural insurance development, broaden ways of insurance industry in national economic development; accelerate the process of urbanization in order to promote the development of insurance industry; and attach great importance to the development of the life insurance in the process of urbanization.