重庆市房地产价格波动对居民消费影响的实证研究

An Empirical Study of the Impact on Residents Consumption of Real Estate Price Fluctuations in Chongqing

房地产是居民家庭财富的重要组成部分,为了验证房地产价格波动对居民消费产生何种影响,以重庆市的房价波动态势和居民消费情况为研究对象,分析房价波动对居民消费的影响机制。选取重庆市1999—2011年共52个季度的相关数据,运用协整检验、误差修正模型和脉冲响应进行实证分析。研究结果表明:重庆市商品房价格上涨并没有产生预期的财富效应从而拉动消费,相反对居民消费起到了抑制作用。

Real estate is an important component of household wealth which has a great influence on residents consumption. Starting with the situation of real estate price fluctuation and residents con- sumption in Chongqing, this paper analyzed the impact mechanism theoretically. Taking advantage of cointegration analysis to establish the error correction model of consumption and impulse response a- nalysis, the quarterly data during 1999 to 2011 show that the rising real estate prices in Chongqing have a negative influence on residents consumption and the wealth effect of real estate is not evident as expected.