“中国储蓄率之谜”的再探讨

Research on the “China's Saving Puzzle”

本文针对"中国储蓄率之谜"问题进行研究,探究中国储蓄率如此之高的原因。文中构建了一个生命周期模型,并利用面板VAR模型得出了影响中国家户储蓄率如此之高的原因。文中构建了一个生命周期模型,并利用面板VAR模型得出了影响中国家庭储蓄率的因素。研究认为,储蓄率具有一个滞后效应,即本期储蓄率很大程度上受上一期储蓄率影响。家庭中子女数与储蓄率具有正相关关系,而教育成本的增加则会对储蓄率产生一个负向影响。此外,工资增长率的增加会使储蓄率上升,而人均资本率的增加会使储蓄率下降。

This paper focuses on ＂China＇s saving puzzle＂ and analyzes the reasons why China＇s saving rate is so high. In this paper, we construct a life-cycle model and then use the PVAR model with a panel covering the period 2004-2011 to get the factors that influence China＇ s saving rate. The research shows that there is a hysteresis effect for the saving rate, i.e., the saving rate of the current period will be affected by that of last period. There is a positive correlation between the number of children and the saving rate, while the increase in the cost of education will have a negative effect on the saving rate. Besides, the increase in the growth rate of wages will push the saving rate up, while the increase in the capital ratio per capita will pull down the saving rate.