脆弱性指数法在煤层底板突水预测中的应用与建议

Application and suggestion on vulnerable index method of coal seam floor water burst evaluation

为了提高脆弱性指数法预测煤矿底板突水的可靠性,利用分形理论对陈四楼煤矿井田南部采区断层展开分析和讨论,在此基础上,利用AHP脆弱性指数法对该区域底板突水危险性进行了分区预测与评价。结果表明:用断层空间分布的分形维数Ds替代断层分布密度、断层规模和断层性质等因素,使预测的主控因素减少了3项;预测结果与实际突水位置拟合较好(仅1处突水点不在预测区域)。由此可得:Ds的大小是断层数量、规模、组合方式及动力学机制等的综合体现;利用基于分形的AHP脆弱性指数法进行煤矿底板突水预测可以提高预测精度。

In order to improve the reliability of predicting the coal floor water inrush with the vulnerability index meth- od, the fractal theory was used to analyze and discuss the fault in the southern mining area of Chensilou Coal Mine. On this basis,the AHP vulnerability index method was applied to make the prediction and evaluation of the partition for the danger of the coal seam floor water burst in the region. The results show that ： fault density, fault scale, the nature of the fault and other factors are replaced by the fractal dimension （Ds ）of the fault spatial distribution, which reduced three main control factors predicted;the predicted results and the actual water inrush location has better fitting（ only one water inrush point was not in the predict regional）. It can be obtained：D~ is the comprehensive reflection of the fault number, size, combination and dynamics mechanism;the AHP vulnerability index method based on fractal theory is used to predict the coal floor water bursting, which can improve the prediction accuracy.