基于组合预测模型的辽阳地区能源需求预测

Combination Forecasting Model of Energy Demand in Liaoyang

为了更可靠地预测辽阳地区未来能源需求量,采用GM(1,1)模型和三次指数平滑模型对辽宁省辽阳地区历史能源消费量建立预测模型,并将两个单一模型加权平均建立组合预测模型。结果表明:组合预测模型在时间序列数据的预测中可信度更高,预测精度达到94.06%;未来10年内,辽阳地区能源消费将以7.36%的年均增长率快速增长,到2022年能源需求量将达到2.2×107t标准煤。

In order to forecast the future energy demand in Liaoyang, based on the previous energy consumption, a grey GM（1,1） model and a cubic exponential smoothing model were respectively established, which were combined model after weighted average. The combination model in forecasting was more reliable, with prediction accuracy of 94.06%. The energy consumption would increase rapidly in Liaoyang in the next 20 years, with the average annual growth rate of 7.36%, and the amount of energy demand would reach 2.2×107 tons in 2022.