中印出口商品的相似性研究——基于东盟进口商品数据的实证分析

On the Similarity in Exports between China and India: An Empirical Analysis Based on Imports Data from ASEAN

为了解金融危机后中印出口商品的竞争态势,本文以国际经济合作中的"轮轴-辐条"为理论基础,以东盟为"轮轴",通过实证研究中印出口商品的相似性等问题。研究发现,中国出口产品的显示性比较优势高于印度;中印出口商品结构的相似性较低,总体上工业制成品相似性高于初级产品;中印出口商品的互补关系比较强,金融危机后中印出口商品的竞争性增强。因此,为了避免在第三方市场上的盲目竞争,促进两国外贸的持续增长,中印要协商制定"共享性增长"的国际经济政策,并加快构建两国共同参与的自由贸易区。

In order to understand the post-financial-crisis situation of competition between goods exported from China and India, this paper reports an empirical study of the similarity in exports between the two countries and other issues involved, which is based on ＂hub and spokes＂ theory and takes the ASEAN area as ＂hub＂ . It is revealed that the displayed compara- tive advantage of China＇ s exports outstrips that of India; the degree of similarity of the goods exported from the two countries is relatively low; and the similarity in manufactured goods is generally higher than that in primary goods between them. How- ever, the goods exported from them are significant complements to each other, and the competition is increasingly fierce in the post-financial-crisis era. Therefore, to avoid blind competition in the third-party market and promote the continuous growth in trade, China and India have to develop an ＂inclusive growth＂ strategy and facilitate the establishment of the Sino-India Free Trade Area.