甘肃临夏地区花椒生态气候适应性分析与产量动态气候模型

Analysis of Eco-Climate Suitability of Prickly Ash and Climatic Model of Yield Dynamic in Gansu Linxia

采用数理统计方法,利用1996-2008年临夏地区花椒产量资料和农业气象资料,分析、研究甘肃临夏地区影响花椒生长的关键生育期及主要气象因子,做出适生种植区划,建立临夏地区花椒各生育期时空动态气候预测模型。结果表明:甘肃临夏地区花椒种植最适宜区永靖县小川、古城及黄河沿岸;适宜区永靖水库区、川塬地,东乡县唐汪、河滩、洮河沿岸,积石山部分黄河沿岸,临夏市东川及1800 m以下川塬区,次适宜区永靖山区,积石山、临夏县、康乐县东北部,临夏市西川,广通河中下游地区,可种植区康乐县中部,和政县东北部,临夏县和积石山中部阳坡区,不可种植区临夏县、和政、康乐、积石山中部偏南区。建立的花椒安全越冬期、萌动发芽期、花期、果实膨大期及成熟期5个阶段的产量气候预测方程,预测准确率达75%以上。

The region pepper production data and agrometeerological data in Linxia in 1996-2008 were used to analyze critical growth period and the main meteorological factors affecting pepper growth in Linxia region by mathematical statistics methods and temporal dynamic climate prediction model in each growth period of pepper was eatablished.The results showed that：Xiaochuan of Yongjing County,the ancient city and along the Yellow River was the most suitable area planting pepper; Yongjing Reservoir area,plateau,Dongxinng Tang Wang County,flood,Taohe coastal,Jishishan part along the Yellow River,LinxiaCity Dongchuan and 1800 m below plateau were suitable areas;Yongjing mountain,Jishishan,Linxia County,the northeast Of Kangle Xichuan of Linxia City were the inferior suitable areas.In the lower part of Guangtong river,Kangle central and northern of Hezheng County,Linxia County,the sunny area of Jishishan could plant pepper; Linxia County,Hezheng,Kangle,Jishishan central south area could not plant pepper.The accuracy rates of climate prediction equationes of pepper security wintering period,germinating germination period,flowering,fruit enlargement period and maturity were more than 75 ％.