房地产价格VAR模型的实证研究

Empirical Research of VAR Model at Property Prices

随着市场经济的飞速发展,近年来房地产市场持续升温,房地产价格持续走高,为保证房地产业的健康发展,运用VAR方法,对近年来我国城镇居民的可支配收入与我国商品房销售价格之间的关系进行了实证分析,并用最小二乘估计作对比,通过Granger因果检验来验证模型设定的合理性.研究表明,居民收入增长是房地产价格上涨的重要解释因素,居民收入与房地产价格之间呈现正向关系.并以此为基础,为我国房地产市场的健康发展提出了相应的政策建议.

In recent years, with the rapid development of the market economy, in the real estate market, real estate prices are rising. In order to guarantee the healthy development of real estate industry, this paper uses the VAR model to explain the rela- tionship between the selling price of house in China and the disposable income of urban residents in recent years. Then com- pared with the least squares estimation, this paper carries on the VAR empirical analysis, and uses the Granger causality test to verify the rationality of the model＇ setting. Research has shown that residents＇income growth is one of the important factors to explain the real estate prices. There exists a positive relationship between real estate prices and residents income on this basis, for the healthy development of the real estate market in our country, this paper puts forward the corresponding policy recommen- dations.