辽宁省病毒性肝炎流行趋势分析及疫情预测

Analysis on epidemic tendency and incidence prediction of viral hepatitis in Liaoning province

目的掌握辽宁省病毒性肝炎的流行情况，为制定病毒性肝炎防制规划提供依据。方法对1985--2012年辽宁省肝炎发病率和病死率等数据进行统计分析。结果1989--2002年，辽宁省的年发病率高于全国平均发病率，自2003年以来，该省发病率远远低于全国平均水平，2008--2012年发病率维持在84．4／10万～94．2／10万。肝炎的病死率呈下降趋势。预测未来3年病毒性肝炎发病率分别为85．7903／10万、83．4492／10万及84．7519／10万。结论针对影响病毒性肝炎流行趋势的因素，该省各级疾病控制机构要把肝炎防治作为疾病预防控制工作重点，积极做好预防接种工作。

[ Objective] To understand the epidemic characteristics of viral hepatitis in Liaoning Province, provide basis for formula- ting measures to prevent and control the disease. [ Methods] The datas of the incidence and fatality rate of viral hepatitis in Liaon- ing Province from 1985-2012 were analyzed. [ Results] The average incidence of the viral hepatitis in Liaoning Province was higher than in the country from 1985-2002. Since 2003, the average incidence of the viral hepatitis in Liaoning Province was lower than in the country. In recent five years, the average incidence was 84.4/100 000-94.2/100 000. The fatality rate was dropped gradually. The prediction of viral hepatitis incidence in the next three years were 85. 7903/100 000, 83. 4492/100 000 and 84. 7519/100 000. [ Conclusion] According the investigation results, the factors which affect the epidemic tendency of viral hepa- titis are analyzed. The disease control agencies at all levels should make the viral hepatitis control and prevention as the focus work and do a good job of vaccination.