东北亚经济合作展望：前景更加光明

Northeast Asian Economic Cooperation in Perspective:The Future Has Never Been Brighter

如果每天都关注新闻,就会很容易对东北亚经济合作感到悲观。进展缓慢,且令人失望的挫折的消息总是被新闻媒体耸人听闻地报道出来,特别是有关朝鲜。这使人很难相信东北亚合作将会有很大进展。然而,笔者认为从更长远的角度来看,最近发生的事件表明,有利于东北亚经济合作的外部条件确实已经获得很大改善。可以断言,经过2012年的各国领导层换届后,未来的合作前景相对于今天变得更加光明。为证实这一点,我将对东北亚经济合作的现状与其他的机遇期进行对比。以往的每一个机遇期都是各方努力推动的结果,却都无果而终。个中原因可以使我们了解到阻碍其取得成功的不利因素是什么,以及如今的有利于东北亚合作的基本条件发生了怎样的改变。在政策适度和稳定的新时代,如果能够巧妙地利用已取得的成果和新进展,各国将会积极扩大东北亚合作的规模和范围。

It is easy to become pessimistic about Northeast Asian economic cooperation if one follows the news day-by-day. Progress has been slow,and disappointing setbacks are always sensationalized in the news media,especially those concerning the DPRK. This makes it difficult to believe that major progress in Northeast Asian cooperation is possible. However,I believe that taking a longer-term perspective on recent events will permit us to seethat there really has been considerable progress in advancing conditions that favor Northeast Asian economic cooperation. This makes it possible to assert that,after a year of leadership transitions in 2012,the prospects for further progress have never been better than today. To see this point,I will compare the present situation to what existed at other moments of opportunity in Northeast Asian economic cooperation. Each of these past moments was the result of certain hopeful developments,but in the end they produced disappointment. The reasons why can tell us what the obstacles to success have been,and how today some fundamental conditions have changed to favor Northeast Asian cooperation.If those old precedents and new developments are skillfully utilized in a new era of policy moderation and stability,they could enlarge the scale and scope of positive Northeast Asian cooperation.