对外开放必然带来经济增长吗?——基于二元经济转换的视角

Will Opening Promote Economic Growth? ——Based on the Perspective of Dual Economic Transformation

文章在内生化农业技术进步的二元经济转换模型的基础上,探讨贸易开放对经济增长的影响。通过对农业技术内生和劳动力部门间流动两个通道的交互作用分析发现:贸易对经济增长的影响取决于一定的二元经济结构条件,当一国城市化水平高于某临界值时,其对外贸易开放将促进经济增长,相反,会抑制经济增长;同时,当城市化水平高于某临界值时,贸易开放将促进二元经济结构的转换,反之,将抑制二元经济结构的转换。当然,对于不同经济体此临界值也不同,该临界值的大小主要受农业技术内生化的深度和模式的影响。

Based on the dual economic conversion model for internalized agricultural technological progress, this thesis presents that the influence open trade has on economic growth depends on a certain dual economic structure： if urbanization level of a country exceeds the critical value, then open trade will promote the economic development; On the contrary, economic development will be hindered. At the same time, if urbanization level of a country exceeds the critical value, open trade will promote the conversion of dual economic structure; on the contrary, the conversion will be hindered. Different economy has different critical value which hinges on the depth and the mode of the agricultural technological internalization.