农户贷款行为的发展规律及其影响因素——基于山东省573户农户6年追踪数据

Development Law of Farmers' Loan Behavior and Its Influence Factors——Based on 6 Years Longitudinal Data of 573 Peasant Households in Shandong Province

本文基于山东省573户农户6年贷款数据全面系统研究农户贷款行为的发展规律及其影响因素。结果表明,农户性质、性别、区域、年龄、教育、家庭人口、家庭劳动力、家庭田地亩数均对农户贷款行为有不同层面的影响;家庭总资产、家庭纯收入对农户贷款行为有极为显著的影响,且有正,有负;家庭总负债对农户贷款行为的影响只在部分核心要素中影响显著;但值得注意的是社会资源的多少对农户贷款行为各个方面均有极为显著的预测作用,说明在非常注重社会关系的中国社会,拥有社会资源的多与少直接影响到农户的贷款行为。

In this paper, we study the development law of loan behavior of 573 peasant households in Shandong province based on 6 years loan data and its influencing factors. The results show that household type, gender, region, age, education, family population, family labor, family land have a different influence on farmers＇ loan behavior; the total assets of the farmers＇ family, net income of farmers have a significant influence on farmers＇ loan behavior, some are positive, some are negative; the influence of liabilities of farmers＇ have a significant influence on farmers＇ loan behavior only in the part of the core elements; but it is worth noting that the social resources of peasant households are extremely significant predictive effect on farmers＇ loan behavior, which means in Chinese society that pay more attention to social relations, the farmers＇ social resources more or less directly affect the loan behavior of peasant household.