基于灰色理论的北京市会展产业发展趋势预测

Forecast of Beijing city exhibition industry development trend based on grey theory

在构建会展产业发展影响因素指标和细分会展活动的基础上,运用灰色关联分析方法分析北京市会展产业发展的关联因素,在此基础上运用多变量灰色预测模型对北京市会展产业及各种会展活动收入进行预测,研究发现由于北京市会展产业收入主要来自于会议活动,北京市会展产业发展与其科技发展水平密切相关,而且由于会议收入增长速度快于会展产业收入增长速度,其占会展产业收入比例不断提高,同时展览收入占产业收入比例却不断下降,而且国际展览收入占展览收入比例却将有所提升。

Based on the buiding of factors system and subdividding of the MICE activities, in this paper, we analysed the correlation factors of MICE industry of Beijing and forecasted the revenue of MICE industry and All kinds of exhibition activities using grey correla- tion analysis methods and multivariate grey prediction model respectively. Results shows that the development Beijing MICE industry is closely related to the level of science and technology, and the meeting revenue pro- portion of MICE industry will increase continually, Due to it＇s revenue growth is faster than the MICE in- dustry, and the revenue exhibition industry proportion of MICE industry will decrease continually, however, the revenue of International exhibition of exhibition industry will be increased.