外汇储备增长与通货膨胀关系研究

Foreign exchange reserve growth and currency inflation relation research

随着对外开放的不断深入,连续多年我国国际收支双顺差,伴随着外汇储备量的不断增长。2012年12月末,我国外汇储备量达到33115.89亿美元。首先,本文对外汇储备增长和通货膨胀进行理论分析;其次,在VAR模型内运用单位根、协整、格兰杰因果检验等时间序列方法对2001-2012年的月度数据进行实证分析,得出外汇储备增长是通货膨胀的因果关系的结论。

With the constant improvement of the re- form and opening, our country has a balance of double surplus, along with foreign exchange reserves in- creased year by year. By the end of 2011, China＇s for- eign exchange reserves amounted to $3.181148 trillion. Firstly, this paper analyses foreign exchange reserves and inflation theoretically. Secondly, time series method will be used to study the monthly data from 2001 to 2011, and draws a conclusion that the growth of the foreign exchange reserve is causation of the infla- tion.